SEAFWA 2018

AUTHORS: Thomas W. Bonnot, School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Northeast Climate Science Center; D. Todd Jones-Farrand, Southeast Region USFWS; Frank R. Thompson III, Northern Research Station, U.S. Forest Service

ABSTRACT: Planning for sustainable landscapes is hampered by uncertainty in how species will respond to conservation actions amidst impacts from landscape and climate change, especially when those impacts are also uncertain. Conservation is also made difficult by the complexities of the planning decisions, including tradeoffs among competing species objectives. We are using a decision-support framework that integrates dynamic-landscape population models and Structured Decision Making to help guide resource allocation decisions by states and their conservation partners. This framework enables comparisons among conservation strategies that best sustain regional populations of multiple species under climate change and urbanization. Within the framework landscapes are simulated into the future under various conservation and threat scenarios. Species distribution models are applied to the landscapes to estimate patterns in habitat and demographics over time, which are then integrated into population models that project population responses and estimate risk for each species. We are currently applying this framework to inform landscape conservation design within and across priority landscapes for states in the Gulf Coastal Plain and Ozarks region which covers all or part of 11 southeastern states. Our simulations include comparisons between protecting higher quality lands and enhancing and restoring lower quality lands. We also developed scenarios to evaluate the importance of connectivity among management within landscapes and the relative contribution of private-lands conservation under different assumptions of long-term permanence and habitat quality. Results from these models will inform implementation of State Wildlife Action Plans.